The fifty-second session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on November 21, 2024. Amy Catalinac (New York University) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.
Ko Maeda (University of North Texas), Tetsuya Matsubayashi (Osaka University), and Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo) offered a preview of the forthcoming Japan Decides 2024. McElwain opened the session with a tentative chapter lineup of the volume. Maeda and Matsubayashi followed with preliminary findings from their respective chapters on election results and voter turnout.
Maeda highlighted comparable declines in LDP vote share across urban and rural areas. Losses in urban areas had a greater impact on electoral outcomes due to the heightened level of competition in these regions. The LDP’s PR vote share fell to levels not seen since 2009. Maeda also stressed the significance of the distinct post-2012 electoral environment. Although the CDP made notable gains, its vote share remains lower than in 2005, when the DPJ was perceived as having lost the elections.
Matsubayashi addressed two research questions. First, what explains the LDP’s losses? He found no evidence for the relationship between these losses and LDP supporter abstentions or the demobilization of supporters in districts implicated in the funding scandals. Second, what explains the DPP’s gains? Matsubayashi found preliminary evidence that increased turnout contributed to DPP support, particularly in areas with younger voters. This trend was not observed for other parties.
The Q&A session expanded on these findings. Participants discussed the LDP’s lack of a coordinated strategy during the surprise snap election. They also furthered a discussion of measures and data, such as exit poll data, and proposed additional research questions. For example, what role did inflation play? Who suffered greater losses among the LDP? Was there a difference between early voting and election-day voting, especially after reports emerged that party branch chiefs with endorsements revoked still received party financing? What impact did the scandal have on voting in single-member districts compared to PR? The session concluded with concerns over the long-term consequences of reduced tax revenue amid ongoing policy and budget negotiations.
The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS: https://jposs.org/.