Author: Jiajia Zhou

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comparative politics international relations Japan-related research

JPOSS #53: “Legacies of Atomic Bombings on Foreign Policy Attitudes in Japan”

The fifty-third session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on February 27, 2025. Saori Katada (University of Southern California) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Masanori Kikuchi (Washington University in St. Louis) presented a paper that examines the multi-generational effect of exposure to large-scale atrocities, specifically the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, on attitudes toward war and foreign policy. Building on existing research that presents competing findings on the effect of large-scale violence on victims’ support for aggressive policies, Kikuchi utilizes the unique case of the catastrophic bombings and the strikingly dovish leanings of victims in Japan to study different channels of influence that may explain this outcome. He tests theories of familial and community pathways of transmission using a survey that compares current residents in Nagasaki, Hiroshima, and other regions in Japan. Kikuchi finds evidence for a correlation between community ties— current residents and public school attendants—and lower support for nuclear weapons possession as well as higher support for international cooperation.

James Dongjin Kim (University of Washington) and Atsushi Yamagishi (Hitotsubashi University) offered insightful suggestions on ways to sharpen the theory and possible biases in measurement. During the Q&A session, participants furthered discussions on sampling considerations, local boards of education, and alternative explanations for the causal pathway.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS:    https://jposs.org/.

Categories
Japan-related research

JPOSS#52: Japan Decides 2024: A Preliminary Analysis of the Japanese General Election

The fifty-second session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on November 21, 2024. Amy Catalinac (New York University) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Ko Maeda (University of North Texas), Tetsuya Matsubayashi (Osaka University), and Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo) offered a preview of the forthcoming Japan Decides 2024. McElwain opened the session with a tentative chapter lineup of the volume. Maeda and Matsubayashi followed with preliminary findings from their respective chapters on election results and voter turnout.

Maeda highlighted comparable declines in LDP vote share across urban and rural areas. Losses in urban areas had a greater impact on electoral outcomes due to the heightened level of competition in these regions. The LDP’s PR vote share fell to levels not seen since 2009. Maeda also stressed the significance of the distinct post-2012 electoral environment. Although the CDP made notable gains, its vote share remains lower than in 2005, when the DPJ was perceived as having lost the elections.

Matsubayashi addressed two research questions. First, what explains the LDP’s losses? He found no evidence for the relationship between these losses and LDP supporter abstentions or the demobilization of supporters in districts implicated in the funding scandals. Second, what explains the DPP’s gains? Matsubayashi found preliminary evidence that increased turnout contributed to DPP support, particularly in areas with younger voters. This trend was not observed for other parties.

The Q&A session expanded on these findings. Participants discussed the LDP’s lack of a coordinated strategy during the surprise snap election. They also furthered a discussion of measures and data, such as exit poll data, and proposed additional research questions. For example, what role did inflation play? Who suffered greater losses among the LDP? Was there a difference between early voting and election-day voting, especially after reports emerged that party branch chiefs with endorsements revoked still received party financing? What impact did the scandal have on voting in single-member districts compared to PR? The session concluded with concerns over the long-term consequences of reduced tax revenue amid ongoing policy and budget negotiations.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS:     https://jposs.org/.

Categories
comparative politics Japan-related research

JPOSS#51: “Disclosing Invisible Attributes Is Subject to Discrimination: Conjoint Analysis”

The fifty-first session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on October 10, 2024. Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Kai Zhou (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) presented a paper co-authored with Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College) examining discrimination against invisible attributes, with a focus on the case of Zainichi Koreans in Japan. Drawing on research into the practice of ethnic passing using names and the theory on intergroup contact in reducing the effects of prejudice, the authors field two conjoint survey experiments to ascertain the effects of presenting Zainichi Korean and Korean names names to respondents who are asked to select their preferred job candidate in a hypothetical hiring process. Their analysis yields effects of discrimination in both instances, with Korean names observing a larger effect than Zainichi Korean names, compared to Japanese names. In their second study that targets the geographical region of Kansai with higher concentrations of Zainichi Koreans, they find the effect to be conditional on the level of intergroup social contact reported by respondents, with individuals reporting high levels of contact yielding null effects of discrimination in the conjoint.

Kazuko Suzuki (Texas A&M University) and Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto) offered insightful suggestions on additional literature to consider and comments on the mechanisms driving the outcome. During the Q&A session, participants furthered discussions on existing literature, politicized information signaled by the names, and alternative explanations for the results observed.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS:    https://jposs.org/.

Categories
comparative politics international relations Japan-related research

JPOSS#50: “Legacies of Settler Mortality and Historical Memory in Settlers’ Home Regions”

The fiftieth session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on May 9, 2024. Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Harunobu Saijo (Hiroshima University) presented a pre-analysis plan co-authored with Jing Xu (Tsinghua University) in preparation for their survey implementation in the upcoming months. The authors examine the role of collective memory and historical prejudice in shaping outgroup prejudice, with a focus on a possible mitigating mechanism. They theorize that narratives making explicit the duality of ingroup members as both victims and perpetrators can potentially reduce outgroup hostility. In order to test different components of their theory, the authors make use of two separate analyses on newly collected data on emigrants from the Nagano prefecture to Manchukuo in the 1930s and 1940s. First, they exploit the natural variation in death rates of emigrants to examine the effects of collective victimization on attitudes of ingroup members who are exposed to the balanced framing narrative implemented in the prefecture’s educational program today. Second, they design a factorial vignette treatment to isolate the effects of the balanced framing narrative.

Volha Charnysh (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Anil Menon (University of California, Merced) offered insightful comments on the theory, pitfalls of the empirical design, and possible ways to strengthen the analysis. During the Q&A session, participants furthered discussions on ways to improve the paper and its proposed analysis, tips on the survey implementation, and ideas for further consideration.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS:    https://jposs.org/.

Categories
international relations Japan-related research

JPOSS#49:“Japan and the African Development Bank”

The forty-ninth session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on May 9, 2024. Christina Davis (Harvard University) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Tetsekela Anyiam-Osigwe (Princeton University) presented a paper co-authored with James Vreeland (Princeton University), which examines the influence of Japan vis-à-vis the United States on African states through the African Development Bank (AfDB). Using panel data on AfDB loans to each state between 1995 and 2015, the authors test the relationship between bilateral political interests and the size of AfDB loans using three measures, UN voting alignment, bilateral aid, and bilateral trade. Their two-way fixed effects model yields statistically significant positive relationships on all three measures for Japan but not the United States. Additional interviews with executives at the AfDB point to Japan’s dominance of co-financing arrangements between the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the AfDB. Their findings suggests that Japan may be shaping loan distributions at the AfDB through these channels.

Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College) and Christopher Kilby (Villanova University) offered insightful comments on alternative explanations and suggestions on model specifications. During the Q&A session, participants furthered discussions on the theory and alternative empirical strategies.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS:    https://jposs.org/.

Categories
comparative politics Japan-related research

JPOSS #48: “Entangled Fishermen: Fishing Industry and The Evolution of Anti-Nuclear Power Plant Movements in Japan”

The forty-eighth session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on April 25, 2024. Saori Katada (University of Southern California) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Toshiaki Yoshida (Northeastern University) presented a paper investigating factors shaping the outcomes of anti-nuclear power plant movements. The author focuses on three intermediate goals that are collectively sufficient for the passage of nuclear plants: acquisition of land, fishing rights, and consent from the communities. Using data on movements in 32 municipalities across 17 prefectures, he examines six factors related to the strength of movements in blocking each of the three goals. His analysis identifies hierarchical fishing cooperatives as a significant factor that undermines the success of these movements, particularly because the concentration of power in one leader enables targeting by pro-nuclear actors.

Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto) and Pinar Temocin (University of Tokyo) offered insightful comments on framing, research design, and clarity of the theory. During the Q&A session, participants furthered discussions on relevant concepts and alternative considerations.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS: https://jposs.org/.

Categories
comparative politics international relations Japan-related research

JPOSS #47: “Legacies of Wartime Sexual Violence: Evidence from World War II ‘Comfort Stations’”

The forty-seventh session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on April 11, 2024. Daniel M. Smith (University of Pennsylvania) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Risa Kitagawa (Northeastern University) presented a paper co-authored with Sumin Lee (Texas A&M University), investigating the long-term effects of wartime sexual violence on local communities, specifically levels of social and political trust. The effects are examined using original data on the locations of “comfort stations” instituted by the Japanese Imperial Army during World War II and the attitudes of individuals reported in recent surveys based on their proximity to these locations. The causal relationship is advanced by exploiting the orthogonal relationship between “comfort stations” and pre-existing levels of trust in communities, as well as controlling for the extent of military operations and violence against civilians. The authors conduct two individual-level analyses using a cross-national sample and a China national sample from two separate surveys. They find positive effects of “comfort stations” on trust in the family and negative effects on trust in the government. Lastly, they supplement their analysis with victims’ oral accounts, which present possible narratives behind the findings.

Eun A Jo (Cornell University and University of Notre Dame) and Daniel M. Smith (University of Pennsylvania) offered insightful comments on the theory, alternative explanations, and further considerations related to cross-national and over-time disparities. During the Q&A session, participants furthered discussions on conflicting explanations, ways to improve the statistical analysis, and alternative sources of data.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS:   https://jposs.org/.

Categories
international relations

JPOSS #46: “Friend-Shoring without Decoupling: How Japanese Multinational Corporations Adapt to Political Risk in China”

The forty-sixth session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on March 28, 2024. Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Timothy Cichanowicz (University of Kansas) presented a paper, co-authored with Samantha A. Vortherms (University of California, Irvine) and Jiakun Jack Zhang (University of Kansas), focusing on firm behavior in response to political risk in China. The authors exploit longer periods of data on behavior by Japanese firms—early movers in response to disputes between China and Japan—to test their theories on shifts in investment from China to other countries in general (“de-risking”) as well as to countries with security ties to Japan (“friend-shoring”). Based on their analysis, the authors argue for the presence of friend-shoring but lack of evidence for de-risking.

Lee Branstetter (Carnegie Mellon University) and Kristin Vekasi (University of Maine) offered insightful comments and suggestions on conceptual clarity, empirical measures, and considerations regarding context, among others. During the Q&A session, participants furthered the discussion on alternative empirical strategies and ways to overcome data availability constraints.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS:   https://jposs.org/.

Categories
comparative politics Japan-related research

JPOSS #45: “Clarifying the Threat of Populism: Place and Party Organizational Strength”

The forty-fifth session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on February 1, 2024. Amy Catalinac (New York University) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Jiajia Zhou (University of Toronto) presented her paper which investigates the role of parties in shaping the populist vote. Responding to the literature on growth in electoral support for populism, the author focuses on how parties mediate this phenomenon. Building on theories of local party organizational strength and party-voter linkage, she uses municipal-level data in the case of Japan to tests the place-related hypotheses of populist support. In particular, the author looks at how support for the dominant party, the Liberal Democratic Party, varied during the 2005 Lower House election that received a populist framing as a de facto referendum on a bill struck down in the Upper House. The author finds support for the role of local party organizational strength but mixed results for clientelist party-voter linkage. Upon accounting for urban-rural differences, the results suggest a possible depolarizing role of party organizational strength in reconciling support for the geographically divisive policy.

Paul D. Kenny (Australian Catholic University) and Charles T. McClean (Yale University) offered insightful comments ranging from the concept of populism to framing, theory, and measurement considerations. During the Q&A session, participants furthered the discussion on other confounding factors and alternative sources of data to consider.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS:  https://jposs.org/.

Categories
comparative politics Japan-related research

JPOSS #44: “Deindustrialisation and Election Outcomes – Evidence from Japan”

The forty-fourth session of the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series (JPOSS) took place on December 7, 2023. Christina L. Davis (Harvard University) chaired the seminar and moderated the Q&A session.

Matthew Morris (University of Nottingham) presented his paper examining the effects of deindustrialization on changing voting patterns over the course of three decades in Japan from 1983 to 2012. Drawing from the literature on economic voting, Morris considers the effect of Japan’s transition from a manufacturing economy to a service economy on shifting patterns of ideological voting. Specifically, he tests his theory at two levels of analyses, the prefectural level and the individual level. At the prefectural level, Morris constructs outcome measures by combining measures of ideological positions from the Manifesto Project with a weighted vote share of parties at the prefectural level. His findings suggest a positive relationship between a decline in manufacturing and support for autarchy. At the individual level, his analysis finds age variations in voting patterns.

Maeda Ko (University of North Texas) and Stephen Weymouth (Georgetown University) offered suggestions on ways to improve the validity of the measures and the statistical model used in the study as well as shared their thoughts on the underlying theory and mechanisms driving the outcomes. During the Q&A session, participants furthered discussions on alternative sources of data and dynamic changes to parties and voters during the period analyzed.

The organizers would like to thank the presenters, discussants, and participants, as well as the staff at the Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, who provided administrative support. We look forward to seeing you at the next session of JPOSS: https://jposs.org/.