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Matthew Morris (University of Nottingham), “Deindustrialisation and Election Outcomes – Evidence from Japan”

December 7, 2023 @ 8:00 pm - 9:00 pm EST

U.S. ET: December 7 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM

JST: December 8 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM

Zoom Registration: Link

Paper is available here.

Author: Matthew Morris (University of Nottingham)

I investigate the impact of deindustrialisation on election outcomes in Japan over 1983-2012 to expand the economic voting literature eastwards. To causally identify the impact of deindustrialisation I use a Bartik instrument to compute a measure of the exogenous change in local manufacturing employment. At the prefectural level, greater deindustrialisation leads to (1) an increase in support for nationalist and isolationist parties (2) a decrease in support for the LDP, and (3) no shift to the right in the electorate. My individual-level analysis of vote choice suggests that such a nationalist reaction may be generationally split, being most pronounced in the youth and the elderly.

Presenter: Matthew Morris (University of Nottingham)

Discussants: Ko Maeda (University of North Texas) and Stephen Weymouth (Georgetown University) 

Chair: Christina L. Davis (Harvard University)


December 7, 2023
8:00 pm - 9:00 pm EST