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Ayumi Teraoka (Princeton), “Third Party Coercion and Gray Zone Conflicts: Assessing U.S. Foreign Policy over the East China Sea, 2008-2014”

November 12, 2020 @ 8:00 pm - 9:00 pm EST

U.S. EDT: November 12 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm

JST: November 13 (Fri), 10 – 11 am

NOTE: Registration required! Link.

Paper can be found here.

Abstract: The United States engaged in dual deterrence over the East China Sea dispute from 2008-2014, dissuading both China and Japan from taking escalatory behavior. Contrary to what dual deterrence theory predicts, however, this U.S. approach failed to deescalate the situation. By process-tracing and examining the consequences of U.S. intervention or lack thereof, this article finds that dual deterrence in the gray zone conflict requires the third-party to act decisively and issue early threats and assurances against revisionist actions. It aims to contribute to scholarly debates on both dual deterrence and gray zone conflicts and offer policy implications.

Presenter: Ayumi Teraoka (Princeton).

Discussants: Tim Crawford (Boston College), Mike Mochizuki (George Washington University).

Chair: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto).


November 12, 2020
8:00 pm - 9:00 pm EST