JPOSS

Harunobu Saijo (Hiroshima University), "Legacies of Settler Mortality and Historical Memory in Settlers' Home Regions"
2024-09-26 20:00 - 21:00 (America/New_York)
U.S. ET: September 26 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: September 27 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Harunobu Saijo (Hiroshima University) and Xu Jing (Tsinghua University)
Abstract:
Past studies show collective violence exposure can lead to increased hostility or greater tolerance towards outgroups. Victimized groups are often also perpetrators. We propose that balanced framing, or recognizing victimhood while acknowledging perpetration may be more effective in reducing hostility than either alone. We will test this with the case of Japanese settlers from Nagano Prefecture who faced violence during evacuation from Manchuria with a planned survey of respondents from Nagano. Mainstream narratives in Nagano emphasize both their role as perpetrators and their victimhood. Using an instrumental variables approach, we will demonstrate that greater exposure to victimization under such dual framing leads contemporary survey respondents to exhibit as yet unmeasured attitudes towards China and other outgroups. Additionally, treating respondents with balanced framing in a vignette experiment results in as yet unmeasured attitudes towards China and other outgroups, compared to other framings.
Presenter: Harunobu Saijo (Hiroshima University)
Discussants: Volha Charnysh (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Anil Menon (University of California, Merced)
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College)

Kai Zhou (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), "Disclosing Invisible Attributes Is Subject to Discrimination: Conjoint Analysis"
2024-10-10 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: October 10 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: October 11 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Kai Zhou (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College)
Abstract:
Despite the voluminous literature on discrimination, there is no empirical research estimating the causal effects of minorities disclosing their invisible identities on others’ discriminatory attitudes. This study investigates the unique case of Zainichi Koreans in Japan, whose ancestors migrated to Japan before World War II and stayed in Japan afterward with special permanent residency status. They often must choose whether or not to disclose their ethnic identity by using a Korean name called honmyо̄, or to conceal it and “pass” as Japanese by using a Japanese alias called tsūmei. The use of a Japanese name practically renders their status as ethnic Koreans invisible because they speak Japanese and are assimilated into Japanese society and culture. We perform two conjoint experiments with hypothetical job applicants using ethnic Korean or Japanese names to show Japanese people’s strong discriminatory attitudes against Zainichi Koreans. Importantly, these discriminatory attitudes are attenuated among those who have frequent and substantive social contact with Zainichi Koreans. We use this particular case to contribute to the broader literature on social contact and discrimination on the basis of invisible identities. Our findings add to a growing body of scholarship providing evidence for invisible forms of discrimination and support for the ability of intergroup social contact to reduce prejudice toward outgroups.
Presenter: Kai Zhou (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Discussant: Kazuko Suzuki (Texas A&M University)
Chair: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto)

Japan Decides 2024: A Preliminary Analysis of the Japanese General Election
2024-11-21 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: November 21 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM

JST: November 22 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Presenters: Ko Maeda (University of North Texas), Tetsuya Matsubayashi (Osaka University), and Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University)
Please join us to discuss the preliminary findings of Japan’s House of Representatives election on October 27, 2024, with the co-editors and a few chapter authors of the forthcoming Japan Decides 2024.

Masanori Kikuchi (Washington University in St. Louis), "Legacies of Atomic Bombings on Foreign Policy Attitudes in Japan"
2025-02-27 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: February 27 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: February 28 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Masanori Kikuchi (Washington University in St. Louis)
Abstract:
What are the consequences of extreme violence during inter-state war on citizens’ long-term political attitudes and values? While scholars have identified prolonged effects of violence exposure on public opinion towards in-group and out-group members, we understand less about how violence shapes broader views about war itself. I theorize that victimization from large-scale violence can have a lasting effect on
support for citizens’ dovish foreign policy views, as it leads them to view war itself as immoral, and that these beliefs are passed down to subsequent generations through various familial-, community-, and national-level channels. Focusing on the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II as a key case, I conducted an original survey across contemporary Japan to examine the expectations. The analysis provides robust evidence that individuals with channels to the victimized communities strongly oppose nuclear weapons, hold dovish foreign policy views, and see war as immoral. The findings highlight how traumatic wartime violence shapes long-term foreign policy attitudes, showcasing both the influence and limitations of family and community in transmitting political attitudes across generations.
Presenter: Masanori Kikuchi (Washington University in St. Louis)
Discussants: James Dongjin Kim (University of Washington) and Atsushi Yamagishi (Hitotsubashi University)
Chair: Saori Katada (University of Southern California)

Sangyong Son (NYU), "Extreme Wartime Violence and Attitudes toward the Use of Force: Evidence from Atomic Bomb Survivors"
2025-05-29 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: May 29 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: May 30 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Sangyong Son (NYU)
Abstract:
Previous studies have examined how conventional wartime violence influences human attitudes toward the use of force. However, despite the frequent past and potential future use of excessively destructive weapons, no research has explored how extreme wartime violence shapes these attitudes. I argue that exposure to extreme wartime violence fosters anti-militarism. To test this argument, I leverage the natural experiment of the atomic bombings in Japanese cities and collect original data from Japanese and Korean atomic bomb survivors. I find that direct exposure to atomic bombings leads to a strong aversion to war and the instruments of war. However, the strength of such anti-militaristic preferences is conditional on external security threats. Although both Japanese and Korean atomic bomb survivors oppose the use and acquisition of nuclear weapons, Korean survivors express significantly weaker aversion to possessing an independent nuclear arsenal as a means of deterring imminent nuclear threats from North Korea.
Presenter: Sangyong Son (NYU)
Discussants: Christopher Blair (Princeton University), Wilhelm Vosse (International Christian University)
Chair: Daniel M. Smith (University of Pennsylvania)

Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester), "Weapons of the Weak: Population Mobility and the Construction of the State in Early Modern Japan"
2025-06-19 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: June 19 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: June 20 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester)
Abstract:
Throughout history, subjects’ exit threats have constrained state power, yet this mechanism has received far less scholarly attention than collective confrontational resistance. I address this gap by (i) formally identifying conditions under which population mobility negatively affects state taxation, and (ii) providing empirical evidence for this relationship using the ideal historical context of Tokugawa Japan—a setting with nearly 300 autonomous domains sharing basic institutional features while exhibiting remarkably divergent tax rates (20-70%). Using newly digitized data on domain capitals, 40,086 villages, and records of peasant revolts, I demonstrate that peripheral villages—those farther from their home capital and closer to foreign capitals—more frequently resisted through exit rather than collective confrontation. I further show that domains with more peripheral village distributions imposed lower tax rates, a pattern that persists after accounting for various alternative mechanisms. Additional evidence suggests that family ties among neighboring rulers moderated tax competition, further supporting the mobility-taxation relationship.
Presenter: Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester)
Discussants: Francisco Garfias (UC San Diego); Chiaki Moriguchi (Hitotsubashi University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (NYU)

Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California), "Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs"
2025-09-03 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: September 3 (Wednesday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: September 4 (Thursday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Author(s): Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Abstract:
Much of the literature on collective historical memory assumes that official historical memory discourse has important impacts on mass attitudes, but scholars have very seldom attempted to measure these impacts systematically using survey research methods. In this paper, which is part of a larger project on banknote iconography and collective identity around the world, I report on findings from repeated cross-sectional surveys of the Japanese public about their knowledge and attitudes about the historical figures who are portrayed on their banknotes. Two of the surveys were conducted prior to the new Japanese yen banknotes series featuring portraits of eminent Japanese from the Meiji era that was issued in July 2024, and two of the surveys were conducted after the new notes were issued. A key question is whether the issuance of the new banknotes and the associated media blitz changed Japanese people’s understandings and attitudes about their national past. Another key question is what factors lead different segments of the Japanese public to express greater or less appreciation for what they see on their banknotes. The survey results find only modest effects of the new banknotes and media blitz, but important differences especially between the perspectives of people of different sexes and about the place of women in the national historical memory.
Presenter: Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Discussants: Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth College); Yoshikuni Ono (Waseda University)
Chair: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto)

Erik Wang (New York University), "Too Much But Never Enough: Administrative Capacity and Backlashes to State-building in Medieval Japan"
2025-11-13 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: November 13 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: November 14 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Link
Author(s): Erik H. Wang (New York University) and Weiwen Yin (University of Macau)
Abstract:
How does state-building fail? Existing scholarship emphasizes both territorial reach and administrative capacity as keys to state-building, but these dimensions do not always progress in tandem. We argue that when territorial penetration outpaces administrative capacity, it will generate governance demands that the state is ill-equipped to manage, ultimately fueling unrest. We test this argument in Japan under the Kamakura Shogunate (1185 – 1333). In preparation for the Mongol invasions, the Shogunate expanded direct rule into previously autonomous regions, despite its own underdeveloped bureaucratic infrastructure. Our difference-in-differences analyses show that this effort triggered rebellions against the Shogunate, identifying increased governance burdens as the key mechanism. These centrifugal forces culminated in long-term state decay, evidenced by the proliferation of castles after the Shogunate’s collapse particularly in those regions. Our findings highlight the conundrum of premature state-building: without sufficient administrative capacity, efforts to strengthen central authority can paradoxically weaken the state’s long-term viability.
Presenter: Erik H. Wang (New York University)
Discussants: Emily Sellars (Yale University); Junichi Yamasaki (Kyoto University)
Chair: Christina Davis (Harvard University)

Yuji Idomoto (UCSD), "The Military That Isn’t: Legalized Anti-Militarism and Limits of Japan’s Defense Policy"
2026-03-05 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: March 5 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: March 6 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Idomoto paper
Author & Presenter: Yuji Idomoto
Abstract:
Japan’s postwar security identity has been defined by anti-militarism, rooted in Article 9 of the Constitution. Existing scholarship has examined its normative foundations, erosion under regional threats, and persistence despite incremental change, but has paid little attention to its legalized dimension—specifically, the formal designation of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) as an administrative organ rather than a military. This paper argues that the SDF’s legal status imposes distinctive operational constraints: it must function in a policing capacity during peacetime, requires explicit political authorization to engage in combat, and lacks standing rules of engagement and military codes. These limitations hinder crisis response, discipline, and coordination with allies. Drawing on underutilized Japanese-language sources, this study demonstrates how domestic legislation institutionalizes restraint, extending debates on anti-militarism and Japanese defense policy. More broadly, it shows how the legalization of domestic norms can profoundly shape foreign and defense policy.
Discussants: Thomas Berger (Boston University), Paul Midford (Meiji Gakuin University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University)

Christina Davis (Harvard University), "Shaping Trade Stability: WTO Rulings on Export Restrictions and Business Confidence in Supply Chains"
2026-04-09 20:00 - 21:00
US ET: April 9 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: April 10 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Link
Authors: Christina Davis (Harvard University), Jialu Li (independent researcher), and Sayumi Miyano (Osaka University)
Presenter: Christina Davis (Harvard University)
Abstract:
An effective international legal system resolves disputes and deters violations. Once the strongest area of international law, the WTO has been weakened by internal conflicts, trade wars, and supply chain disruptions. This paper examines whether WTO rulings still bolster confidence in the rules-based trade order, focusing on business perceptions of supply chain stability. Using a 2022 survey experiment of Japanese firm managers, we assess how WTO rulings shape expectations about trade reliability. Respondents were randomly assigned to receive varying information regarding a WTO ruling that found China’s export restrictions on raw materials violated WTO rules, modeled on an actual case. We analyze how legal rulings and policy changes affect confidence in securing input supplies and compare perceptions of China’s supply chains versus other countries. Results show that learning about a WTO ruling against China lowers confidence in China’s supply chain reliability. However, further learning about China’s compliance with the ruling significantly restores confidence—more than similar policy changes without multilateral enforcement. These findings suggest that while highlighting violations may weaken trust, compliance strengthens confidence in global trade stability.
Discussants: Gregory Shaffer (Georgetown University Law Center), Iain Osgood (University of Michigan)
Chair: Saori Katada (University of Southern California)

Sho Miyazaki (Waseda University), "Why Do AI Models Tell Left-Wing Voters to Support the Communist Party? AI Voting Advice in Japan’s 2026 General Election"
2026-05-21 20:00 - 21:00
US ET: May 21 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: May 22 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Link
Authors: Sho Miyazaki (Waseda University), Andrew B. Hall (Stanford University)
Presenter: Sho Miyazaki (Waseda University)
Abstract:
Al chatbots with web search are increasingly used for voting guidance, yet we know relatively little about their recommendation behavior outside the US. We query five models from three companies with 36,300 synthetic voter profiles during Japan’s 2026 Lower House election, plus a follow-up with today’s four frontier models. Policy stances dominate recommendations, producing 50-98 percentage point swings compared to 0.5-7.0 pp for demographics. Strikingly, left-leaning stances cause all five models to converge on Japan’s Communist Party, despite other parties holding similar positions on the relevant issues. We trace this to the information environment: JCP operates a fully open website with a party newspaper that models freely access and frequently misclassify as independent journalism, while major Japanese news outlets block Al crawlers. Without policy input, models show no uniform left-wing bias. Incorporating X search shifts recommendations modestly leftward, contradicting US-centric expectations. These findings suggest that Al models need better source discrimination in non-US contexts, and that news organizations blocking Al access may inadvertently cede influence over Al-mediated voting advice to partisan sources that remain open.
Discussants: Kentaro Fukumoto (University of Tokyo), Kenneth McElwain (University of Tokyo)
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Florida State University)

Tyler Rongxuan Chen (University of Michigan), "Crisis from Within: Elite Defection, Intraparty Competition, and the Breakdown of Dominant Party Systems"
2026-07-23 20:00 - 21:00
US ET: July 23 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: July 24 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: 0720 Crisis from Within
Author and Presenter: Tyler Rongxuan Chen (University of Michigan)
Abstract:
When and how do dominant party systems break? I argue that the cracks from which they do not recover come from within, after years of electoral dominance, led by the party’s most successful politicians rather than its marginal ones. Across 4,638 candidate-elections in UMNO in Peninsular Malaysia (1959–2018), the LDP in Japan (1958-1993), and the KMT in Taiwan (1986-2001), I show that dominant parties’ monopoly over office forces losing elites to choose between marginalization and exit. This choice produces two distinct patterns: bloc exits, when cohesive factions leave together after losing leadership struggles, and marginal exits, when weakened candidates depart alone. Whether a split actually ends the party’s dominance is a downstream question: breakaway parties endure only when they attach to a social cleavage the dominant party cannot absorb. Dominant-party system breakdown is an elite phenomenon in its onset and a cleavage phenomenon in its consequences.
Discussants: Ko Maeda (University of North Texas), Ora John Reuter (University of Wisconsin, Milwakee)
Chair: Daniel Smith (University of Pennsylvania)
