JPOSS

John W. Cheng (Tsuda University), Masaru Nishikawa (Tsuda University), Ikuma Ogura (Georgetown University), Nicholas A. R. Fraser (University of California, Berkeley), "Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is: Willingness to Pay for Online Conspiracy Theory Content – Evidence from Japan"
2021-10-14 20:00 - 21:00 (America/New_York)
U.S. EDT: October 14 (Thu), 8 – 9 PM
JST: October 15 (Fri), 9 – 10 AM
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Abstract:
This study examines whether conspiracy believers in Japan are willing to act on their beliefs using a concept from economics known as willingness to pay. Specifically, we conducted a conjoint experiment (n=1,098) to test whether people are willing to pay for a hypothetical online video channel that offers conspiracy theory content. The results show that around 5% of the participants were willing to pay for the channel, and those who relied more on social media than mainstream media for news were more likely to pay. That is, by using monetary value as a proxy, we find that although their number is relatively small, some individuals are willing to pay for (act on) their conspiracy beliefs.
Paper is available here.
Presenters: John W. Cheng (Tsuda University), Masaru Nishikawa (Tsuda University), Ikuma Ogura (Georgetown University), Nicholas A. R. Fraser (University of California, Berkeley).
Discussants: Masato Kajimoto (University of Hong Kong), Joseph Uscinski (University of Miami).
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University).

Panel: "Career Paths and Job Market Strategies for Japan Scholars"
2021-09-23 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: September 23 (Thu), 8 – 9 PM
JST: September 24 (Fri), 9 – 10 AM
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Panelists: Sherry L. Martin (U.S. Department of State), Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo), Kristin Vekasi (Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations; University of Maine).
Chair: Christina L. Davis (Harvard University).
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Charmaine Willis (University at Albany, SUNY), "Framing the Conversation: the US Military and Anti-US-Military Activism in Japan"
2021-08-05 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: August 5 (Thu), 8 – 9 PM
JST: August 6 (Fri), 9 – 10 AM
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Abstract:
Since the end of WWII, the US has maintained a military presence in Japan with bases spread throughout the archipelago. Tensions emerge periodically between the base presence and the local population, particularly on the southernmost island of Okinawa. The US military presence in Okinawa has elicited more local resistance than its presence in mainland Japan, despite large and strategically important bases there. Until recently, previous research on anti-US-base protests in Japan has taken for granted the disparity in protest activity between Okinawa and the Japanese mainland, failing to examine the possible reasons for this difference. This study seeks to discern why the US bases in Okinawa have elicited more protest than the bases on the Japanese mainland through a mixed-method analysis that employs an original protest event dataset, activist and elite interviews, and primary sources. I argue that the difference is primarily rooted in divergent protest framing and discursive opportunity structures. When the US military presence is visible, as in Okinawa, anti-US-military activists’ frames are more likely to resonate. Additionally, communities like Okinawa that have been historically marginalized by the central government and/or the US are more likely to support anti-US-military activism vis-à-vis protests. This study endeavors not only to answer the questions surrounding anti-US protest disparity in Japan, but also to contribute to the understanding of under what conditions sustained protest mobilization emerges.
Paper can be found here.
Presenter: Charmaine Willis (University at Albany, SUNY).
Discussants: Yoshiaki Kubo (Indiana University Bloomington; University of the Ryukyus), Andrew Yeo (Catholic University of America).
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University).

Cana Kim (Louisiana State University), "The Failed Reconciliation between North Korea and Japan"
2021-07-15 09:00 - 10:00
U.S. EDT: July 15 (Thu), 9 – 10 AM
JST: July 15 (Thu), 10 – 11 PM
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Abstract:
This study aims to explore the crossover between interstate reconciliation and negotiation by tracing 15 years of normalization efforts between Japan and North Korea. The existing theories of interstate negotiation cannot explain the entire process and outcomes of Japan-DPRK normalization talks in a unified framework. Instead, I situate the negotiation within the subtext of the reconciliation process, of which the primary condition is to eradicate the existing threat perception between former adversaries. To assess this argument, I draw seven hypotheses regarding the effect of threat perceptions on negotiation strategies and outcomes, based on the theory of remembrance. Findings revealed that, under the context of reconciliation, the two countries added issues related to their own threat perception and employed hard-bargaining strategies on the threat perception issues. Furthermore, an apologetic remembrance could not function as a meaningful signal when it contradicted other signals or the previous stance on the issue.
Paper is available here.
Presenter: Cana Kim (Louisiana State University).
Discussants: Thomas Berger (Boston University), Yinan He (Lehigh University).
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College).

Hiroki Takeuchi (Southern Methodist University), "Global Value Chains and Domestic Politics Response to Trade: China, Japan, and the United States Compared"
2021-06-24 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: June 24 (Thu), 8 – 9 PM
JST: June 25 (Fri), 9 – 10 AM
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Abstract:
During the 1990s, the nature of globalization began to change. Fragmentation of manufacturing led to the development of global value chains (GVCs) by multinational corporations, and it has become common practice for different stages of manufacturing production to be located in different countries. GVCs based intra-industry trade requires a different kind of rule-making for international trade, and it has changed the political economy of domestic response to international trade agreements. Domestic politics of foreign economic policy differs depending on the state’s domestic political and economic institutions as well as the nature of the international economic agreement. Interestingly, the free trade agreements for GVCs based trade such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership–which is now the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership–tend to be intrusive, which require the signatories to commit to politically sensitive domestic economic reforms–such as the state-owned enterprise reform in China. This paper explores how the spread of GVCs has changed political economy of domestic response to international trade. Its scope is limited to an analysis of China, Japan, and the United States, as lessons from these three countries could translate to other countries.
Paper is available here.
Presenter: Hiroki Takeuchi (Southern Methodist University).
Discussants: Patricia Maclachlan (University of Texas at Austin), Ka Zeng (University of Arkansas).
Chair: Phillip Lipscy (University of Toronto).

Yu Jin Woo (Waseda University), Ikuo Kume (Waseda University), "Taking Gains from Trade (More) Seriously: The Effects of Consumer Perspective on Free Trade in Contemporary Japan"
2021-06-10 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: June 10 (Thu), 8 – 9 PM
JST: June 11 (Fri), 9 – 10 AM
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Abstract:
How did the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) persistently pursue the TPP negotiations without harming its overall public support? In understanding individuals’ preferences toward trade liberalization, the traditional literature on international political economy has typically examined their comparative advantage as producers, which arises from their specific or general skill level or employment concerns. What needs to be taken into account, however, is that their economic preferences are constructed based upon their intertwined identities as both producers and consumers. Using a unique survey design, we conducted an experiment in Japan (2015) that shows that consumer effect reduces individuals’ concerns on income level or employment when they are exposed to consumer and employment primings simultaneously. Furthermore, our subgroup analyses reveal that the consumer effect remains powerful even for economically fragile individuals while the LDP supporters are particularly susceptible to the consumer priming. In sum, our findings speculate that the LDP enjoyed a sustained public support due to Japanese people’s increasing price sensitivity, which is especially strong among pro-LDP individuals.
Paper is available here.
Presenter: Yu Jin Woo (Waseda University).
Discussants: Eddie Hearn (Musashi University), Soo Yeon Kim (National University of Singapore).
Chair: Christina L. Davis (Harvard University).

Yesola Kweon (Utah State University), ByeongHwa Choi (National Taiwan University), "Elderly Identity and Trade Policy Preferences in an Aging Society: Evidence from Japan"
2021-05-27 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: May 27 (Thu), 8 – 9 PM
JST: May 28 (Fri), 9 – 10 AM
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Abstract:
Standard economic models of trade emphasize production ownership and industrial sectors as key determinants of trade policy preferences. Such emphasis directs the focus of previous studies onto working-age individuals, and as a result, the policy preferences of older citizens are often not considered. This is because senior citizens are assumed to be favorable toward trade as they assess the topic only as consumers who stand to benefit from more affordable imported goods. Thought to be outside of the workforce, elderly people are considered to no longer hold a producer’s perspective in evaluating trade policy. Using survey experiment data from Japan, a prototypical aging society, we argue that the trade policy preferences of the elderly depend on regional demographic structures. We find that in aged regions where elderly poverty is a more pressing issue, senior citizens are more likely to oppose trade. In addition, those living in graying regions are also more sensitive to a producer-priming rather than a consumer-priming of population aging issues, further reinforcing their opposition to trade. In contrast to the conventional view that the old and the young have conflicting policy preferences, the growing worker identity among the elderly implies a potential intergenerational convergence in policy preference. In addition, our study suggests that as more senior citizens re-enter the labor market in the context of rapid population aging, the competition among workers for low-quality jobs and hostility toward trade openness is likely to intensify.
Paper is available here.
Presenter: Yesola Kweon (Utah State University).
Discussants: Andy Baker (University of Colorado Boulder), Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego).
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University).

Kentaro Fukumoto (Gakushuin University), Charles McClean (Harvard University), Kuninori Nakagawa (Shizuoka University), "Shut Down Schools, Knock Down the Virus?"
2021-05-13 09:00 - 10:00
U.S. EDT: May 13 (Thu), 9 – 10 AM
JST: May 13 (Thurs), 10 – 11 PM
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Abstract:
As COVID-19 spread in March 2020, most countries shut down schools in the hopes of slowing the pandemic. Since then, many countries have reopened schools, with varying degrees of success. Yet, we lack research that investigates the effectiveness of these policies in a systematic way. Our study aims to estimate the causal effects of school closures and reopenings on the number of coronavirus infections. To do so, we apply matching methods to municipal-level data in Japan. We find that school closures were not associated with a reduction in the spread of the coronavirus. Our results thus suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for childhood learning and development.
Paper is available here.
Presenter: Kentaro Fukumoto (Gakushuin University).
Discussant: Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo).
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College).

Michael Sharpe (York College/CUNY), "Selecting Legal Residents by Unemployment and Ethnicity in the Liberal Democratic State to 'Control Unwanted Immigration': Remigration in The Netherlands and Japan 1985-2011"
2021-04-15 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: April 15 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: April 16 (Fri), 9 – 10 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Paper can be found here.
Presenters: Michael Sharpe (York College/CUNY).
Discussants: Annika Hinze (Fordham University), Michael Strausz (Texas Christian University).
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University).

Taishi Muraoka (Washington University in St. Louis), “How Do Voters Perceive Female Politicians' Abilities to Distribute Pork?” (Pre-analysis Plan)
2021-04-01 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: April 1 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: April 2 (Fri), 9 – 10 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Pre-analysis plan can be found here.
Presenters: Taishi Muraoka (Washington University in St. Louis).
Discussants: Nichole M. Bauer (Louisiana State University), Alexander Coppock (Yale University).
Chair: Daniel M. Smith (Harvard University).

Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo), Yuki Shiraito (University of Michigan), Guoer Liu (University of Michigan), "The Clash of Traditional Values: Attitudes toward a Male-line Monarchy under a Succession Crisis"
2021-03-04 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EST: March 4 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: March 5 (Fri), 10 – 11 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Paper can be found here.
Presenters: Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo), Yuki Shiraito (University of Michigan).
Discussants: Margarita Estévez-Abe (Syracuse University), Cecilia Hyunjung Mo (University of California, Berkeley).
Chair: Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth College).

Panel: “Professional Development #2: Working on Japan, Working in Japan”
2021-02-11 20:00 - 21:15
Professional Development #2: Working on Japan, Working in Japan
U.S. ET: February 11 (Thu), 8:00 – 9:15 pm
JST: February 12 (Fri), 10:00 – 11:15 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Presenters: Sheila Smith (Council on Foreign Relations), Saori Katada (University of Southern California), Ellis Krauss (University of California, San Diego), Gill Steel (Doshisha University).
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth).

Jordan Hamzawi (UC Davis), “Policy or Valence? Candidate or Party? Assessing Voter Preferences in Japan”
2020-12-17 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: December 17 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: December 18 (Fri), 10 – 11 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Paper can be found here.
Presenter: Jordan Hamzawi (University of California, Davis).
Discussants: Kentaro Fukumoto (Gakushuin University), Zeynep Somer Topcu (University of Texas at Austin).
Chair: Daniel M. Smith (Harvard).

Takako Hikotani (Columbia), Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth), Atsushi Tago (Waseda), “U.S. Military Should Not Be in My Backyard: A Case of Okinawa”
2020-12-03 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: December 3 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: December 4 (Fri), 10 – 11 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Paper can be found here.
Abstract: In an article recently published in the American Political Science Review, Allen et al. (2020) argue that citizens in U.S. allies are more likely to nurture favorable attitudes toward the U.S. government, American people, and American troops because they have inter-personal contact with Americans and receive economic benefits associated with the U.S. military presence. However, their analysis of surveys fielded in fourteen U.S. allies disregards the geographical concentration of U.S. military facilities within the host countries. To examine this relevance of geography, we focus on Okinawa, a small Japanese prefecture constituting only 0.6% of Japan’s surface land but hosting 70% of U.S. military facilities within Japan. Based on a national sample and a targeted sample from Okinawa, we replicate their survey. We also administer an original conjoint experiment on Japanese citizens’ attitudes toward the Osprey deployment in Japan. The results show strong Not-In-My-Backyard (NIMBY) sentiment among Japanese people, particularly among Okinawans, toward the military presence, regardless of their contact with Americans and economic benefits. Our study sheds light on the importance of local foreign public opinion for foreign policy analysis and contributes to the debate on the U.S. military presence in the world.
Presenters: Takako Hikotani (Columbia), Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth), Atsushi Tago (Waseda).
Discussants: Yoshiaki Kubo (Harvard Program on U.S.-Japan Relations; University of the Ryukyus), Michael Tomz (Stanford).
Chair: Christina Davis (Harvard).

Ayumi Teraoka (Princeton), “Third Party Coercion and Gray Zone Conflicts: Assessing U.S. Foreign Policy over the East China Sea, 2008-2014”
2020-11-12 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: November 12 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: November 13 (Fri), 10 – 11 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Paper can be found here.
Abstract: The United States engaged in dual deterrence over the East China Sea dispute from 2008-2014, dissuading both China and Japan from taking escalatory behavior. Contrary to what dual deterrence theory predicts, however, this U.S. approach failed to deescalate the situation. By process-tracing and examining the consequences of U.S. intervention or lack thereof, this article finds that dual deterrence in the gray zone conflict requires the third-party to act decisively and issue early threats and assurances against revisionist actions. It aims to contribute to scholarly debates on both dual deterrence and gray zone conflicts and offer policy implications.
Presenter: Ayumi Teraoka (Princeton).
Discussants: Tim Crawford (Boston College), Mike Mochizuki (George Washington University).
Chair: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto).

Deirdre Martin (UC Berkeley), "Quiet Acquisition: The Politics of Justification in Military Capability Trajectories"
2020-10-29 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: October 29 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: October 30 (Fri), 9 – 10 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Presenter: Deirdre Martin (UC Berkeley).
Chair: Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth College).

Diana Stanescu (Harvard), "Agents or Advisers? Bureaucratic Structure and the Politics of Trade Protectionism" (Practice Job Talk)
2020-10-15 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: October 15 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: October 16 (Fri), 9 – 10 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.
Presenter: Diana Stanescu (Harvard).
Chair: Christina Davis (Harvard).

Fan Lu (Queen's University) & Gento Kato (Nazarbayev University), "Can University Education Cultivate Immigrant Integration? The Case of Local Enfranchisement for Foreign Residents in Japan"
2020-10-01 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: October 1 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: October 2 (Fri), 9 – 10 am
NOTE: Registration required! Link.

Paper can be found here.
Presenters: Fan Lu (Queen’s University), Gento Kato (Nazarbayev University).
Abstract: While there is lively debate on whether higher education cultivates support for admitting foreigners into North America and Europe, there is little discussion on the extent to which this relationship generalizes beyond these continents. Furthermore, willingness to admit foreigners is not the same as willingness to integrate them. In light of Japan’s growing reliance on foreign workers to solve its labor shortage problem and the public’s divided opinion on integrating foreigners, we examine the relationship between university education and Japanese attitudes toward immigration. To do so, we use matching techniques that incorporate individual attributes as well as residential zip codes to analyze public opinion surveys fielded between 2009 and 2014. Our findings suggest Japanese university education has limited effect on support for enfranchising permanent resident foreigners, and if there is any, the effect is more visible among females than males. Furthermore, the effect is mediated through improved attitudes toward Koreans, the dominant group of permanent resident foreigners rather than attitudes toward Chinese immigrants or more liberal political ideologies.
Discussants: Rieko Kage (University of Tokyo), Rocio Titiunik (Princeton).
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth).

Panel: “How to Frame Japan-Related Research for Publications and the Job Market”
2020-09-17 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: 8 – 9 pm, September 17 (Thursday)
JST: 9 – 10 am, September 18 (Friday)
NOTE: Registration required! Link.

Panelists: Amy Catalinac (NYU), Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth), Christina Davis (Harvard), Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth), Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto), Frances McCall Rosenbluth (Yale), Daniel M. Smith (Harvard).
We would like to collect questions in advance, relating to research, publications, the job market, and other topics. Please submit your question in the “Leave a Reply” box below.

Trevor Incerti (Yale) & Hikaru Yamagishi (Yale), "Do Firms Benefit from the Revolving Door? Evidence from Japan"
2020-08-13 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: 8 – 9 pm, August 13 (Thursday)
JST: 9 – 10 am, August 14 (Friday)
NOTE: Registration required! LINK

[Paper, Codebook and User Guide]
Presenters: Trevor Incerti (Yale University), Hikaru Yamagishi (Yale University).
Abstract: A growing literature finds high returns to firms connected to legislative office. Less attention has been paid to benefits from bureaucratic connections. Yet recent evidence shows that the groups actively contacting the legislature extensively contact bureaucrats as well. Private sector hiring of former civil servants—a process known as the revolving door—facilitates this practice. Leveraging a 2009 law requiring Japanese bureaucratic agencies to report all private sector hires of former civil servants, we construct the first comprehensive dataset of revolving door hires. Using this dataset, as well as data on Japanese government contracts, we test for systematic benefits that accrue to firms who hire former bureaucrats. Specifically, we hypothesize that bureaucratic rehiring will be associated with an increased likelihood of receipt of government contracts and investment. Finally, we test for stock market boosts from hiring of high-ranking former officials using an event study approach.
Discussants: Hye Young You (NYU), Yuhua Wang (Harvard), Ulrike Schaede (UCSD).
Chair: Daniel Smith (Harvard).

Nicholas Fraser (University of Toronto) & John W. Cheng (Tsuda University), “The New Consensus on Immigration?: Identifying the Racial Undertones of Immigrant Selection Outside the Western Context”
2020-07-09 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. EDT: July 9 (Thu), 8 – 9 pm
JST: July 10 (Fri), 9 – 10 am
NOTE: Registration required! LINK

[Paper]
Presenter: Nicholas Fraser (University of Toronto).
Abstract: To what extent do natives oppose admitting ethnically or culturally different immigrants? Several experimental studies show that natives in developed countries prefer high-skilled immigrants. This skills premium argument has been supported by studies that focus on the US as well as those that explore European and Asian countries. However, this emerging consensus has been challenged by recent studies which demonstrate that natives in several western countries prefer to admit immigrants from developed white majority sending countries. This raises the question: is the implicit ethnocultural bias within the preference for high-skilled migrants a uniquely western phenomenon? We explore this question by test-ing a modified version of Hainmueller and Hopkins’ 2015 experiment using a sample from an ethnically homogenous country where immigration is far less politicized than it is in the US and west European countries, Japan. Our study shows that Japanese conditionally apply skill requirements and suggests that the implicit ethnocultural bias that underlies the preference for high-skilled migrants is a broader trend and not unique to western countries.
Discussants: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth), Rieko Kage (University of Tokyo), Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth), Hilary Holbrow (Harvard).
Chair: Amy Catalinac (NYU).
