Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester), "Weapons of the Weak: Population Mobility and the Construction of the State in Early Modern Japan"
2025-06-19 20:00 - 21:00 (America/New_York)
U.S. ET: June 19 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: June 20 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester)
Abstract:
Throughout history, subjects’ exit threats have constrained state power, yet this mechanism has received far less scholarly attention than collective confrontational resistance. I address this gap by (i) formally identifying conditions under which population mobility negatively affects state taxation, and (ii) providing empirical evidence for this relationship using the ideal historical context of Tokugawa Japan—a setting with nearly 300 autonomous domains sharing basic institutional features while exhibiting remarkably divergent tax rates (20-70%). Using newly digitized data on domain capitals, 40,086 villages, and records of peasant revolts, I demonstrate that peripheral villages—those farther from their home capital and closer to foreign capitals—more frequently resisted through exit rather than collective confrontation. I further show that domains with more peripheral village distributions imposed lower tax rates, a pattern that persists after accounting for various alternative mechanisms. Additional evidence suggests that family ties among neighboring rulers moderated tax competition, further supporting the mobility-taxation relationship.
Presenter: Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester)
Discussants: Francisco Garfias (UC San Diego); Chiaki Moriguchi (Hitotsubashi University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (NYU)

Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California), "Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs"
2025-09-03 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: September 3 (Wednesday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: September 4 (Thursday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Author(s): Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Abstract:
Much of the literature on collective historical memory assumes that official historical memory discourse has important impacts on mass attitudes, but scholars have very seldom attempted to measure these impacts systematically using survey research methods. In this paper, which is part of a larger project on banknote iconography and collective identity around the world, I report on findings from repeated cross-sectional surveys of the Japanese public about their knowledge and attitudes about the historical figures who are portrayed on their banknotes. Two of the surveys were conducted prior to the new Japanese yen banknotes series featuring portraits of eminent Japanese from the Meiji era that was issued in July 2024, and two of the surveys were conducted after the new notes were issued. A key question is whether the issuance of the new banknotes and the associated media blitz changed Japanese people’s understandings and attitudes about their national past. Another key question is what factors lead different segments of the Japanese public to express greater or less appreciation for what they see on their banknotes. The survey results find only modest effects of the new banknotes and media blitz, but important differences especially between the perspectives of people of different sexes and about the place of women in the national historical memory.
Presenter: Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Discussants: Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth College); Yoshikuni Ono (Waseda University)
Chair: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto)

Erik Wang (New York University), "Too Much But Never Enough: Administrative Capacity and Backlashes to State-building in Medieval Japan"
2025-11-13 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: November 13 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: November 14 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Link
Author(s): Erik H. Wang (New York University) and Weiwen Yin (University of Macau)
Abstract:
How does state-building fail? Existing scholarship emphasizes both territorial reach and administrative capacity as keys to state-building, but these dimensions do not always progress in tandem. We argue that when territorial penetration outpaces administrative capacity, it will generate governance demands that the state is ill-equipped to manage, ultimately fueling unrest. We test this argument in Japan under the Kamakura Shogunate (1185 – 1333). In preparation for the Mongol invasions, the Shogunate expanded direct rule into previously autonomous regions, despite its own underdeveloped bureaucratic infrastructure. Our difference-in-differences analyses show that this effort triggered rebellions against the Shogunate, identifying increased governance burdens as the key mechanism. These centrifugal forces culminated in long-term state decay, evidenced by the proliferation of castles after the Shogunate’s collapse particularly in those regions. Our findings highlight the conundrum of premature state-building: without sufficient administrative capacity, efforts to strengthen central authority can paradoxically weaken the state’s long-term viability.
Presenter: Erik H. Wang (New York University)
Discussants: Emily Sellars (Yale University); Junichi Yamasaki (Kyoto University)
Chair: Christina Davis (Harvard University)

Yuji Idomoto (UCSD), "The Military That Isn’t: Legalized Anti-Militarism and Limits of Japan’s Defense Policy"
2026-03-05 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: March 5 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: March 6 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Idomoto paper
Author & Presenter: Yuji Idomoto
Abstract:
Japan’s postwar security identity has been defined by anti-militarism, rooted in Article 9 of the Constitution. Existing scholarship has examined its normative foundations, erosion under regional threats, and persistence despite incremental change, but has paid little attention to its legalized dimension—specifically, the formal designation of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) as an administrative organ rather than a military. This paper argues that the SDF’s legal status imposes distinctive operational constraints: it must function in a policing capacity during peacetime, requires explicit political authorization to engage in combat, and lacks standing rules of engagement and military codes. These limitations hinder crisis response, discipline, and coordination with allies. Drawing on underutilized Japanese-language sources, this study demonstrates how domestic legislation institutionalizes restraint, extending debates on anti-militarism and Japanese defense policy. More broadly, it shows how the legalization of domestic norms can profoundly shape foreign and defense policy.
Discussants: Thomas Berger (Boston University), Paul Midford (Meiji Gakuin University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University)

Christina Davis (Harvard University), "Shaping Trade Stability: WTO Rulings on Export Restrictions and Business Confidence in Supply Chains"
2026-04-09 20:00 - 21:00
US ET: April 9 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: April 10 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Link
Authors: Christina Davis (Harvard University), Jialu Li (independent researcher), and Sayumi Miyano (Osaka University)
Presenter: Christina Davis (Harvard University)
Abstract:
An effective international legal system resolves disputes and deters violations. Once the strongest area of international law, the WTO has been weakened by internal conflicts, trade wars, and supply chain disruptions. This paper examines whether WTO rulings still bolster confidence in the rules-based trade order, focusing on business perceptions of supply chain stability. Using a 2022 survey experiment of Japanese firm managers, we assess how WTO rulings shape expectations about trade reliability. Respondents were randomly assigned to receive varying information regarding a WTO ruling that found China’s export restrictions on raw materials violated WTO rules, modeled on an actual case. We analyze how legal rulings and policy changes affect confidence in securing input supplies and compare perceptions of China’s supply chains versus other countries. Results show that learning about a WTO ruling against China lowers confidence in China’s supply chain reliability. However, further learning about China’s compliance with the ruling significantly restores confidence—more than similar policy changes without multilateral enforcement. These findings suggest that while highlighting violations may weaken trust, compliance strengthens confidence in global trade stability.
Discussants: Gregory Shaffer (Georgetown University Law Center), Iain Osgood (University of Michigan)
Chair: Saori Katada (University of Southern California)

Sho Miyazaki (Waseda University), "Why Do AI Models Tell Left-Wing Voters to Support the Communist Party? AI Voting Advice in Japan’s 2026 General Election"
2026-05-21 20:00 - 21:00
US ET: May 21 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: May 22 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: to be posted.
Authors: Sho Miyazaki (Waseda University), Andrew B. Hall (Stanford University)
Presenter: Sho Miyazaki (Waseda University)
Abstract:
Al chatbots with web search are increasingly used for voting guidance, yet we know relatively little about their recommendation behavior outside the US. We query five models from three companies with 36,300 synthetic voter profiles during Japan’s 2026 Lower House election, plus a follow-up with today’s four frontier models. Policy stances dominate recommendations, producing 50-98 percentage point swings compared to 0.5-7.0 pp for demographics. Strikingly, left-leaning stances cause all five models to converge on Japan’s Communist Party, despite other parties holding similar positions on the relevant issues. We trace this to the information environment: JCP operates a fully open website with a party newspaper that models freely access and frequently misclassify as independent journalism, while major Japanese news outlets block Al crawlers. Without policy input, models show no uniform left-wing bias. Incorporating X search shifts recommendations modestly leftward, contradicting US-centric expectations. These findings suggest that Al models need better source discrimination in non-US contexts, and that news organizations blocking Al access may inadvertently cede influence over Al-mediated voting advice to partisan sources that remain open.
Discussants: Kentaro Fukumoto (University of Tokyo), Kenneth McElwain (University of Tokyo)
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Florida State University)
