JPOSS

Austin Mitchell (Tohoku University), "Show Me the Money: Explaining Fiscal Capacity Building in Late 16th Century Japan"
2023-03-02 20:00 - 21:00 (America/New_York)
U.S. ET: March 2 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: March 3 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here
Author: Austin Mitchell (Tohoku University), Minzhao Wang (Peking University), and Weiwen Yin (University of Macau)
Abstract:
How do rulers develop fiscal capacity in the process of state-building? In this paper, we propose a mechanism for how rulers implement fiscal capacity building according to their incentives for revenue extraction. Specifically, rulers prioritize implementing fiscal capacity building policies that can overcome the asymmetric information problem between central and local governments in areas where potential extractable revenue is large. We test the hypotheses using the context of late 16th century Japan where Toyotomi Hideyoshi implemented cadastral surveys (taiko kenchi) as an effort of state-building. Based on a panel of provinces between 1582-1598 in Japan, we find that localities with larger potential output were the primary targets of the land surveys, while neither involvement in the invasion of Korea nor opposition against Hideyoshi predict survey implementation. The results suggest that revenue extraction motivates how state-building is pursued to a greater extent than a locality’s exposure to external or internal competitions.
Presenter: Austin Mitchell (Tohoku University)
Discussants: David Stasavage (New York University), Junichi Yamasaki (Kobe University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University)

Etienne Gagnon (University of Tokyo), "Good News or Bad News? Political Social Media Messaging During the Tokyo Olympics"
2023-04-20 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: April 20 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: April 21 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here
Authors: Etienne Gagnon (University of Tokyo), Kenneth McElwain (University of Tokyo), and Yuya Shibuya (University of Tokyo)
Abstract:
Sporting events that are unrelated to political competence can nevertheless improve politicians’ standing among voters. The impact of
such cues rests on two assumptions: that voters view sporting events positively, and that politicians seek credit for them. We examine
these linkages in a context where both assumptions may be violated: the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The Olympics were politically divisive, as
they were held amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, politicians may have hesitated from lauding Olympics achievements lest they be accused of downplaying Covid’s dangers. We examine this strategic dilemma through two types of analyses. First, we conduct
topic clustering and sentiment analysis of politicians’ social media messages and show two patterns. Governing party (LDP) politicians
engaged in quantitatively more, and tonally more positive, messaging during the Olympics. LDP politicians were also more likely to post
positively about the Olympics when an athlete from their prefecture won a medal. Second, we examine pre- and post-Olympics changes
in public sentiment using multi-wave survey data. Those whose views towards the Olympics became more favorable were more likely to
change their party affinity to the LDP and to evaluate the prime minister’s handling of Covid positively. Overall, our analysis suggests that despite the LDP’s tentative social media messaging about the Olympics, the event itself seems to have borne political fruit.
Presenter: Etienne Gagnon (University of Tokyo)
Discussants: Eunji Kim (Columbia University), Neil Malhotra (Stanford University)
Chair: Daniel M. Smith (Columbia University)

Hiroki Takeuchi (Southern Methodist University), Keely McNeme (Southern Methodist University), "Comparative One-Party Rule: Japan and Mexico Compared"
2023-05-18 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: May 18 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: May 19 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Hiroki Takeuchi (Southern Methodist University) and Keely McNeme (Southern Methodist University)
Abstract:
A critical aspect of democracies is the peaceful transition of power between multiple parties through fair and free elections. Although a
party may remain in power for subsequent terms, decades of staying in power typically indicate a rigged electoral system. Japan and
Mexico in the twentieth century offer two interesting cases. A single party dominated both for several decades—Japan by the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) from 1955 to 2009 while Mexico by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) from 1929 to 2000—but Japan was
classified as a democracy while Mexico was classified as authoritarianism. Both the LDP and the PRI were known for electoral
clientelism and corruption. Given the surface-level similarities of one-party rule between these two countries, what makes these different
classifications? Moreover, after experiencing the loss of power in the twenty-first century, the LDP is still the dominant party in Japanese
politics, while the PRI is not in Mexican politics anymore now that both are classified as electoral democracies. What explains the
divergent trajectories taken by these two former one-party ruling parties?
Presenters: Hiroki Takeuchi (Southern Methodist University) and Keely McNeme (Southern Methodist University)
Discussants: Masaaki Higashijima (University of Tokyo) and Len Schoppa (University of Virginia)
Chair: Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth College)

Boyoon Lee (Vanderbilt University), "Moderating Role of Country-of-Origin Stereotypes on Attitudes Towards Immigrants"
2023-06-08 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: June 8 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: June 9 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link.
Paper is available here.
Author: Boyoon Lee (Vanderbilt University)
Abstract:
How do country-of-origin stereotypes influence native attitudes towards immigrants? Drawing on dual processing models of stereotypes from social psychology, I present three different ways that country-of-origin stereotypes might moderate how natives respond to information about immigrants. I use a conjoint experiment in Japan to examine how country-of-origin stereotypes related to competence and warmth, the two basic dimensions of stereotypes proposed by Fiske et al. (2002), condition the way that natives evaluate information about immigrant attributes when deciding their willingness to accept immigrants. I find that while negative country-of-origin stereotypes always reduce the value of these attributes, there is little evidence that positive stereotypes, especially as they relate to competence, have any moderating effect. My findings suggest that negative country-of-origin stereotypes weigh more heavily when natives process information that might affect their preferences for immigrant acceptance.
Presenter: Boyoon Lee (Vanderbilt University)
Discussants: Jeremy Ferwerda (Dartmouth College) and Michael Strausz (Texas Christian University)
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College)

Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth), Saori Katada (USC), & Megumi Naoi (UCSD), "Professionalization Session: Strategies for Teaching Japanese Politics"
2023-07-20 20:00 - 21:15
U.S. ET: July 20 (Thursday), 8 – 9:15 PM

JST: July 21 (Friday), 9 – 10:15 AM
Zoom Registration: Link.
Goals:
As part of our professionalization series, we will discuss strategies to teach about Japan in political science. We will discuss (1) ways to teach about Japan, as a standalone Japanese politics course, as a case study in general comparative/IR courses (e.g. electoral politics, political economy etc.), or part of a course focused on a world region (e.g. East Asian politics or IPE); and (2) strategies to engage students at three different levels–undergraduate, MA, and PhD–and to encourage and advise them to incorporate Japan in their research. As many of us are creating or revising course syllabi at this time, we hope this session will be useful for JPOSS participants.
Presenters: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College), Saori Katada (University of Southern California), Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego)

Takaharu Saito (Nagoya University of Commerce and Business), "Does Divided Government Control Unilateral Policymaking? Evidence from Chair Elections"
2023-08-24 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: August 24 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: August 25 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link.
Paper is available here.
Author: Takaharu Saito (Nagoya University of Commerce and Business)
Abstract:
Unilateral action remains a crucial aspect of presidential policy formulation, yet empirical consensus on the role of executive-legislative relations remains elusive. In this research, we applied a Regression Discontinuity (RD) design to scrutinize 4,898 chairperson elections across 790 municipal governments in Japan, revealing no substantial influence of executive-legislative dynamics on unilateral action. Consequently, this study underscores the possibility that the utility of established theories might be contextually confined to specific temporal and geographical realms.
Presenter: Takaharu Saito (Nagoya University of Commerce and Business)
Discussants: Alex Bolton (Emory University) and Charles McClean (Yale University)
Chair: Phillip Lipscy (University of Toronto)

Masaru Nishikawa (Tsuda University), "Career Trajectory of Political Scientists’ Publication in the First and Second Language: Japan as an example of internationalization of political science, 1971-2023"
2023-10-26 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: October 26 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: October 27 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link.
Paper is available here.
Authors: Akira Matsui (Yokohama National University), Masaru Nishikawa (Tsuda University), and Daisuke Sakai (Independent Researcher)
Abstract:
This paper discusses the “science of science” and bibliometrics, which have made new findings on scientific practices, such as scientific patterns, scientific impact, and citation, but these studies have focused primarily on Western countries. However, there is little research on non-Western countries, such as Japan: the existing research is biased towards Western countries. The authors emphasize the need to study the internationalization of political science, including themes such as international co-authorship. This paper also points out the limitations of major citation databases, which cover only academic journals published in English. As a result, the text proposes a case study of Japanese political scientists who incorporate English and Japanese publications into their careers as a unique opportunity to study the internationalization of political science. After a literature review and a research question on how to define the internationalization of political science, the authors adopt multiple methods –descriptive statistics, text analysis, and network analysis — to answer the RQs.
Presenter: Masaru Nishikawa (Tsuda University)
Discussant: Alexander J. Gates (University of Virginia)
Chair: Daniel M. Smith (University of Pennsylvania)

Patricia Maclachlan (University of Texas at Austin), "Mechanisms of Resistance: Informal Institutional Impediments to Japanese Postal Privatization"
2023-11-09 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: November 9 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: November 10 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link.
Paper is available here.
Author: Patricia Maclachlan (University of Texas at Austin)
Abstract:
Nearly two decades after Koizumi Jun’ichirō passed his landmark legislation, the postal privatization process has lost its momentum. Japan Post Mail is in the red, the profit margins of the banking and insurance firms are shrinking, government remains by far the largest shareholder in the two financial firms, and stories abound of fraud and wasteful spending. Of course, no reform agenda ever lives up the intentions of its architects. But what exactly explains these developments? One answer, I argue, is the impact of enduring informal institutional practices (e.g., amakudari and quotas (noruma) for the postmaster’s mobilization of votes) on the privatization process. This paper demonstrates that by functioning as vehicles for anti-reformist elite coordination and competition across the economic, political, and bureaucratic domains connected to the postal services, these unofficial but enduring practices have weakened political momentum behind the privatization agenda and hence the implementation of privatization rules and principles. In addition to presenting new explanations for anti-reformist interest group influence within the Japanese political economy, this study offers theoretical insights into the nature, functions, and significance of informal institutions in “coordinated market economies.”
Presenter: Patricia Maclachlan (University of Texas at Austin)
Discussants: Daniel M. Brinks (University of Texas at Austin) and Steven Vogel (University of California, Berkeley)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University)

Matthew Morris (University of Nottingham), "Deindustrialisation and Election Outcomes – Evidence from Japan"
2023-12-07 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: December 7 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: December 8 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Author: Matthew Morris (University of Nottingham)
Abstract:
I investigate the impact of deindustrialisation on election outcomes in Japan over 1983-2012 to expand the economic voting literature eastwards. To causally identify the impact of deindustrialisation I use a Bartik instrument to compute a measure of the exogenous change in local manufacturing employment. At the prefectural level, greater deindustrialisation leads to (1) an increase in support for nationalist and isolationist parties (2) a decrease in support for the LDP, and (3) no shift to the right in the electorate. My individual-level analysis of vote choice suggests that such a nationalist reaction may be generationally split, being most pronounced in the youth and the elderly.
Presenter: Matthew Morris (University of Nottingham)
Discussants: Ko Maeda (University of North Texas) and Stephen Weymouth (Georgetown University)
Chair: Christina L. Davis (Harvard University)

Jiajia Zhou (University of Toronto), "Clarifying the Threat of Populism: Place and Party Organizational Strength"
2024-02-01 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: February 1 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: February 2 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Author: Jiajia Zhou (University of Toronto)
Abstract:
In this paper, I investigate the relationship between party organizational strength and populist electoral success. I attempt to bridge the gap between micro-level theories of politician strategy and voter demands and macro-level theories of crisis and globalization through an understanding of local party strength and support for populism. I test my hypotheses by examining within-country variation in Japan. I utilize measures for party organizational strength and party-voter linkages in a municipal-level panel dataset that spans more than 1,000 municipalities and six lower house elections from 2000 to 2014, two of which occurred during the leadership of an anti-elite populist maverick in Japan’s dominant party. This paper contributes to literature on place-related determinants of populist support and questions existing views of the populist threat as uniquely tied to a particular ideology or the challenges of globalization. More broadly, the paper aims to bring clarity to questions of a phenomenon that may involve both genuine pursuits of stronger representation and potential threats to democratic stability.
Presenter: Jiajia Zhou (University of Toronto)
Discussants: Paul Kenny (Australian Catholic University) and Charles McClean (Yale University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University)

Timothy Cichanowicz (University of Kansas), "Friend-Shoring without Decoupling: How Japanese Multinational Corporations Adapt to Political Risk in China"
2024-03-28 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: March 28 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: March 29 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Author: Timothy Cichanowicz (University of Kansas), Samantha A. Vortherms (University of California, Irvine), Jiakun Jack Zhang (University of Kansas).
Abstract:
How are multinational firms (MNCs) and the global supply chains that link them to China adjusting to the heightened political risks in the era of decoupling? Since the U.S.-China Trade War and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Western governments have increased efforts to encourage MNCs to divert investment from an increasingly authoritarian China toward politically reliable allies and partners.
Using subsidiary-level panel data on the global operations of Japanese MNCs from 2011-2021, we reconcile conflicting expectations offered by “business as usual” and “follow the flag” scholars about the degree to which these firms are decoupling or friend-shoring in response to political risks in China. We find that aggregate Japanese investment in China has continued to grow over the past decade despite heightened political risks and a slight decline in the overall share of global subsidiaries based in China, suggesting that the pace and extent of decoupling are quite limited.
However, we also find a positive relationship between investment size and the strength of host country security ties at the subsidiary level. This lends support to the idea that alignment of security interests promotes greater investment and that friend-shoring is happening on the margins.
Presenter: Timothy Cichanowicz (University of Kansas)
Discussants: Lee Branstetter (Carnegie Mellon University) and Kristin Vekasi (University of Maine)
Chair: Phillip Lipscy (University of Toronto)

Risa Kitagawa (Northeastern University), "Legacies of Wartime Sexual Violence: Evidence from World War II 'Comfort Stations'"
2024-04-11 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: April 11 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: April 12 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Risa Kitagawa (Northeastern University) and Sumin Lee (Texas A&M University).
Abstract:
What are the long-term effects of wartime sexual violence on trust? We argue that whereas sexual violence reinforces perceptions of state absence, it compels affected communities to turn to kinship and social bonds for communal coping, building social trust over time. We provide evidence from original geocoded data of over 4,000 “comfort stations” across Asia—the Japanese Imperial Army’s institution of sexual slavery during World War II. Our cross-national and sub-national tests get analytical leverage from prewar railroad networks as a treatment assignment mechanism and the rarity of postwar repatriation of “comfort women.” Proximity to historical “comfort stations” sites consistently predicts a higher likelihood of social trust today, but not political trust. We document causal mechanisms through historical oral testimonies. Some consequences of wartime sexual violence may follow a distinct logic from broader conflict, as communities rely on social ties to survive the stigmatized trauma of rape.
Presenter: Risa Kitagawa (Northeastern University)
Discussant: Eun A Jo (Cornell University and University of Notre Dame)
Chair: Daniel M. Smith (University of Pennsylvania)

Toshiaki Yoshida (Northeastern University), "Entangled Fishermen: Fishing Industry and The Evolution of Anti-nuclear Power Plant Movements in Japan"
2024-04-25 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: April 25 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: April 26 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Author: Toshiaki Yoshida (Northeastern University)
Abstract:
While Japan has the most advanced nuclear power plant program in the world, residents have long resisted attempts to site nuclear facilities in their backyards. This article analyzes conditions that have impacted the outcome of these movements since 1960. The analysis of a dataset spanning 32 towns’ movements shows that the existence of capital-intensive fishing was detrimental to movement success. This happened because (1) capital-intensive fishing breeds a dominant boss, thereby inducing a vertical decision-making process in social movement organizations of key stakeholders; (2) resulting movements led by a single, salient leader create identifiable targets for pro-nuclear groups; and (3) offshore fishing is susceptible to changes in the external environment, including the Oil Shock in the 1970s. This study allows us to better understand the relationship between the strength of social movements and the organizational character of key stakeholders.
Presenter: Toshiaki Yoshida (Northeastern University)
Discussant: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto) and Pinar Temocin (University of Tokyo)
Chair: Saori Katada (University of Southern California)

Tetsekela Anyiam-Osigwe (Princeton University), "Japan and the African Development Bank"
2024-05-09 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: May 9 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: May 10 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Tetsekela Anyiam-Osigwe (Princeton University) and James Vreeland (Princeton University)
Abstract:
Africa has been a target of influence by major powers throughout history. In this paper, we investigate sway over Africa’s foremost international financial institution: the African Development Bank (AfDB). We focus on the two largest non-regional shareholders, the United States and Japan. Analyzing panel data of AfDB loans from 1995-2015, we find that increases in Japanese bilateral aid and trade, as well as voting with Japan at the United Nations, are associated with larger AfDB commitments. We do not uncover similar patterns for the United States. Interview evidence suggests that Japan’s imperial past and lack of historical ties with Africa encourage a quiet yet persuasive engagement with the institution, which furthers the country’s economic and political aims on the continent. Our results advance the view that historical legacies shape the ways in which countries choose to employ international organizations to pursue their interests.
Presenter: Tetsekela Anyiam-Osigwe (Princeton University)
Discussants: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College) and Christopher Kilby (Villanova University)
Chair: Christina Davis (Harvard University)

Harunobu Saijo (Hiroshima University), "Legacies of Settler Mortality and Historical Memory in Settlers' Home Regions"
2024-09-26 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: September 26 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: September 27 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Harunobu Saijo (Hiroshima University) and Xu Jing (Tsinghua University)
Abstract:
Past studies show collective violence exposure can lead to increased hostility or greater tolerance towards outgroups. Victimized groups are often also perpetrators. We propose that balanced framing, or recognizing victimhood while acknowledging perpetration may be more effective in reducing hostility than either alone. We will test this with the case of Japanese settlers from Nagano Prefecture who faced violence during evacuation from Manchuria with a planned survey of respondents from Nagano. Mainstream narratives in Nagano emphasize both their role as perpetrators and their victimhood. Using an instrumental variables approach, we will demonstrate that greater exposure to victimization under such dual framing leads contemporary survey respondents to exhibit as yet unmeasured attitudes towards China and other outgroups. Additionally, treating respondents with balanced framing in a vignette experiment results in as yet unmeasured attitudes towards China and other outgroups, compared to other framings.
Presenter: Harunobu Saijo (Hiroshima University)
Discussants: Volha Charnysh (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Anil Menon (University of California, Merced)
Chair: Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College)

Kai Zhou (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), "Disclosing Invisible Attributes Is Subject to Discrimination: Conjoint Analysis"
2024-10-10 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: October 10 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: October 11 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Kai Zhou (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College)
Abstract:
Despite the voluminous literature on discrimination, there is no empirical research estimating the causal effects of minorities disclosing their invisible identities on others’ discriminatory attitudes. This study investigates the unique case of Zainichi Koreans in Japan, whose ancestors migrated to Japan before World War II and stayed in Japan afterward with special permanent residency status. They often must choose whether or not to disclose their ethnic identity by using a Korean name called honmyо̄, or to conceal it and “pass” as Japanese by using a Japanese alias called tsūmei. The use of a Japanese name practically renders their status as ethnic Koreans invisible because they speak Japanese and are assimilated into Japanese society and culture. We perform two conjoint experiments with hypothetical job applicants using ethnic Korean or Japanese names to show Japanese people’s strong discriminatory attitudes against Zainichi Koreans. Importantly, these discriminatory attitudes are attenuated among those who have frequent and substantive social contact with Zainichi Koreans. We use this particular case to contribute to the broader literature on social contact and discrimination on the basis of invisible identities. Our findings add to a growing body of scholarship providing evidence for invisible forms of discrimination and support for the ability of intergroup social contact to reduce prejudice toward outgroups.
Presenter: Kai Zhou (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Discussant: Kazuko Suzuki (Texas A&M University)
Chair: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto)

Japan Decides 2024: A Preliminary Analysis of the Japanese General Election
2024-11-21 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: November 21 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM

JST: November 22 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Presenters: Ko Maeda (University of North Texas), Tetsuya Matsubayashi (Osaka University), and Kenneth Mori McElwain (University of Tokyo)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University)
Please join us to discuss the preliminary findings of Japan’s House of Representatives election on October 27, 2024, with the co-editors and a few chapter authors of the forthcoming Japan Decides 2024.

Masanori Kikuchi (Washington University in St. Louis), "Legacies of Atomic Bombings on Foreign Policy Attitudes in Japan"
2025-02-27 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: February 27 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: February 28 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Masanori Kikuchi (Washington University in St. Louis)
Abstract:
What are the consequences of extreme violence during inter-state war on citizens’ long-term political attitudes and values? While scholars have identified prolonged effects of violence exposure on public opinion towards in-group and out-group members, we understand less about how violence shapes broader views about war itself. I theorize that victimization from large-scale violence can have a lasting effect on
support for citizens’ dovish foreign policy views, as it leads them to view war itself as immoral, and that these beliefs are passed down to subsequent generations through various familial-, community-, and national-level channels. Focusing on the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II as a key case, I conducted an original survey across contemporary Japan to examine the expectations. The analysis provides robust evidence that individuals with channels to the victimized communities strongly oppose nuclear weapons, hold dovish foreign policy views, and see war as immoral. The findings highlight how traumatic wartime violence shapes long-term foreign policy attitudes, showcasing both the influence and limitations of family and community in transmitting political attitudes across generations.
Presenter: Masanori Kikuchi (Washington University in St. Louis)
Discussants: James Dongjin Kim (University of Washington) and Atsushi Yamagishi (Hitotsubashi University)
Chair: Saori Katada (University of Southern California)

Sangyong Son (NYU), "Extreme Wartime Violence and Attitudes toward the Use of Force: Evidence from Atomic Bomb Survivors"
2025-05-29 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: May 29 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: May 30 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Sangyong Son (NYU)
Abstract:
Previous studies have examined how conventional wartime violence influences human attitudes toward the use of force. However, despite the frequent past and potential future use of excessively destructive weapons, no research has explored how extreme wartime violence shapes these attitudes. I argue that exposure to extreme wartime violence fosters anti-militarism. To test this argument, I leverage the natural experiment of the atomic bombings in Japanese cities and collect original data from Japanese and Korean atomic bomb survivors. I find that direct exposure to atomic bombings leads to a strong aversion to war and the instruments of war. However, the strength of such anti-militaristic preferences is conditional on external security threats. Although both Japanese and Korean atomic bomb survivors oppose the use and acquisition of nuclear weapons, Korean survivors express significantly weaker aversion to possessing an independent nuclear arsenal as a means of deterring imminent nuclear threats from North Korea.
Presenter: Sangyong Son (NYU)
Discussants: Christopher Blair (Princeton University), Wilhelm Vosse (International Christian University)
Chair: Daniel M. Smith (University of Pennsylvania)

Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester), "Weapons of the Weak: Population Mobility and the Construction of the State in Early Modern Japan"
2025-06-19 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: June 19 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: June 20 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester)
Abstract:
Throughout history, subjects’ exit threats have constrained state power, yet this mechanism has received far less scholarly attention than collective confrontational resistance. I address this gap by (i) formally identifying conditions under which population mobility negatively affects state taxation, and (ii) providing empirical evidence for this relationship using the ideal historical context of Tokugawa Japan—a setting with nearly 300 autonomous domains sharing basic institutional features while exhibiting remarkably divergent tax rates (20-70%). Using newly digitized data on domain capitals, 40,086 villages, and records of peasant revolts, I demonstrate that peripheral villages—those farther from their home capital and closer to foreign capitals—more frequently resisted through exit rather than collective confrontation. I further show that domains with more peripheral village distributions imposed lower tax rates, a pattern that persists after accounting for various alternative mechanisms. Additional evidence suggests that family ties among neighboring rulers moderated tax competition, further supporting the mobility-taxation relationship.
Presenter: Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester)
Discussants: Francisco Garfias (UC San Diego); Chiaki Moriguchi (Hitotsubashi University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (NYU)

Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California), "Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs"
2025-09-03 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: September 3 (Wednesday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: September 4 (Thursday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Author(s): Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Abstract:
Much of the literature on collective historical memory assumes that official historical memory discourse has important impacts on mass attitudes, but scholars have very seldom attempted to measure these impacts systematically using survey research methods. In this paper, which is part of a larger project on banknote iconography and collective identity around the world, I report on findings from repeated cross-sectional surveys of the Japanese public about their knowledge and attitudes about the historical figures who are portrayed on their banknotes. Two of the surveys were conducted prior to the new Japanese yen banknotes series featuring portraits of eminent Japanese from the Meiji era that was issued in July 2024, and two of the surveys were conducted after the new notes were issued. A key question is whether the issuance of the new banknotes and the associated media blitz changed Japanese people’s understandings and attitudes about their national past. Another key question is what factors lead different segments of the Japanese public to express greater or less appreciation for what they see on their banknotes. The survey results find only modest effects of the new banknotes and media blitz, but important differences especially between the perspectives of people of different sexes and about the place of women in the national historical memory.
Presenter: Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Discussants: Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth College); Yoshikuni Ono (Waseda University)
Chair: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto)

Erik Wang (New York University), "Too Much But Never Enough: Administrative Capacity and Backlashes to State-building in Medieval Japan"
2025-11-13 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: November 13 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: November 14 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Link
Author(s): Erik H. Wang (New York University) and Weiwen Yin (University of Macau)
Abstract:
How does state-building fail? Existing scholarship emphasizes both territorial reach and administrative capacity as keys to state-building, but these dimensions do not always progress in tandem. We argue that when territorial penetration outpaces administrative capacity, it will generate governance demands that the state is ill-equipped to manage, ultimately fueling unrest. We test this argument in Japan under the Kamakura Shogunate (1185 – 1333). In preparation for the Mongol invasions, the Shogunate expanded direct rule into previously autonomous regions, despite its own underdeveloped bureaucratic infrastructure. Our difference-in-differences analyses show that this effort triggered rebellions against the Shogunate, identifying increased governance burdens as the key mechanism. These centrifugal forces culminated in long-term state decay, evidenced by the proliferation of castles after the Shogunate’s collapse particularly in those regions. Our findings highlight the conundrum of premature state-building: without sufficient administrative capacity, efforts to strengthen central authority can paradoxically weaken the state’s long-term viability.
Presenter: Erik H. Wang (New York University)
Discussants: Emily Sellars (Yale University); Junichi Yamasaki (Kyoto University)
Chair: Christina Davis (Harvard University)

Yuji Idomoto (UCSD), "The Military That Isn’t: Legalized Anti-Militarism and Limits of Japan’s Defense Policy"
2026-03-05 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: March 5 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: March 6 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Idomoto paper
Author & Presenter: Yuji Idomoto
Abstract:
Japan’s postwar security identity has been defined by anti-militarism, rooted in Article 9 of the Constitution. Existing scholarship has examined its normative foundations, erosion under regional threats, and persistence despite incremental change, but has paid little attention to its legalized dimension—specifically, the formal designation of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) as an administrative organ rather than a military. This paper argues that the SDF’s legal status imposes distinctive operational constraints: it must function in a policing capacity during peacetime, requires explicit political authorization to engage in combat, and lacks standing rules of engagement and military codes. These limitations hinder crisis response, discipline, and coordination with allies. Drawing on underutilized Japanese-language sources, this study demonstrates how domestic legislation institutionalizes restraint, extending debates on anti-militarism and Japanese defense policy. More broadly, it shows how the legalization of domestic norms can profoundly shape foreign and defense policy.
Discussants: Thomas Berger (Boston University), Paul Midford (Meiji Gakuin University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (New York University)

Christina Davis (Harvard University), "Shaping Trade Stability: WTO Rulings on Export Restrictions and Business Confidence in Supply Chains"
2026-04-09 20:00 - 21:00
US ET: April 9 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: April 10 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Link
Authors: Christina Davis (Harvard University), Jialu Li (independent researcher), and Sayumi Miyano (Osaka University)
Presenter: Christina Davis (Harvard University)
Abstract:
An effective international legal system resolves disputes and deters violations. Once the strongest area of international law, the WTO has been weakened by internal conflicts, trade wars, and supply chain disruptions. This paper examines whether WTO rulings still bolster confidence in the rules-based trade order, focusing on business perceptions of supply chain stability. Using a 2022 survey experiment of Japanese firm managers, we assess how WTO rulings shape expectations about trade reliability. Respondents were randomly assigned to receive varying information regarding a WTO ruling that found China’s export restrictions on raw materials violated WTO rules, modeled on an actual case. We analyze how legal rulings and policy changes affect confidence in securing input supplies and compare perceptions of China’s supply chains versus other countries. Results show that learning about a WTO ruling against China lowers confidence in China’s supply chain reliability. However, further learning about China’s compliance with the ruling significantly restores confidence—more than similar policy changes without multilateral enforcement. These findings suggest that while highlighting violations may weaken trust, compliance strengthens confidence in global trade stability.
Discussants: Gregory Shaffer (Georgetown University Law Center), Iain Osgood (University of Michigan)
Chair: Saori Katada (University of Southern California)
