JPOSS

Sangyong Son (NYU), "Extreme Wartime Violence and Attitudes toward the Use of Force: Evidence from Atomic Bomb Survivors"
2025-05-29 20:00 - 21:00 (America/New_York)
U.S. ET: May 29 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: May 30 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Sangyong Son (NYU)
Abstract:
Previous studies have examined how conventional wartime violence influences human attitudes toward the use of force. However, despite the frequent past and potential future use of excessively destructive weapons, no research has explored how extreme wartime violence shapes these attitudes. I argue that exposure to extreme wartime violence fosters anti-militarism. To test this argument, I leverage the natural experiment of the atomic bombings in Japanese cities and collect original data from Japanese and Korean atomic bomb survivors. I find that direct exposure to atomic bombings leads to a strong aversion to war and the instruments of war. However, the strength of such anti-militaristic preferences is conditional on external security threats. Although both Japanese and Korean atomic bomb survivors oppose the use and acquisition of nuclear weapons, Korean survivors express significantly weaker aversion to possessing an independent nuclear arsenal as a means of deterring imminent nuclear threats from North Korea.
Presenter: Sangyong Son (NYU)
Discussants: Christopher Blair (Princeton University), Wilhelm Vosse (International Christian University)
Chair: Daniel M. Smith (University of Pennsylvania)

Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester), "Weapons of the Weak: Population Mobility and the Construction of the State in Early Modern Japan"
2025-06-19 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: June 19 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: June 20 (Friday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Authors: Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester)
Abstract:
Throughout history, subjects’ exit threats have constrained state power, yet this mechanism has received far less scholarly attention than collective confrontational resistance. I address this gap by (i) formally identifying conditions under which population mobility negatively affects state taxation, and (ii) providing empirical evidence for this relationship using the ideal historical context of Tokugawa Japan—a setting with nearly 300 autonomous domains sharing basic institutional features while exhibiting remarkably divergent tax rates (20-70%). Using newly digitized data on domain capitals, 40,086 villages, and records of peasant revolts, I demonstrate that peripheral villages—those farther from their home capital and closer to foreign capitals—more frequently resisted through exit rather than collective confrontation. I further show that domains with more peripheral village distributions imposed lower tax rates, a pattern that persists after accounting for various alternative mechanisms. Additional evidence suggests that family ties among neighboring rulers moderated tax competition, further supporting the mobility-taxation relationship.
Presenter: Shusuke Ioku (University of Rochester)
Discussants: Francisco Garfias (UC San Diego); Chiaki Moriguchi (Hitotsubashi University)
Chair: Amy Catalinac (NYU)

Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California), "Official historical memory discourse and public opinion: The case of Japan’s new banknote designs"
2025-09-03 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: September 3 (Wednesday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: September 4 (Thursday), 9 – 10 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper is available here.
Author(s): Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Abstract:
Much of the literature on collective historical memory assumes that official historical memory discourse has important impacts on mass attitudes, but scholars have very seldom attempted to measure these impacts systematically using survey research methods. In this paper, which is part of a larger project on banknote iconography and collective identity around the world, I report on findings from repeated cross-sectional surveys of the Japanese public about their knowledge and attitudes about the historical figures who are portrayed on their banknotes. Two of the surveys were conducted prior to the new Japanese yen banknotes series featuring portraits of eminent Japanese from the Meiji era that was issued in July 2024, and two of the surveys were conducted after the new notes were issued. A key question is whether the issuance of the new banknotes and the associated media blitz changed Japanese people’s understandings and attitudes about their national past. Another key question is what factors lead different segments of the Japanese public to express greater or less appreciation for what they see on their banknotes. The survey results find only modest effects of the new banknotes and media blitz, but important differences especially between the perspectives of people of different sexes and about the place of women in the national historical memory.
Presenter: Jacques Hymans (University of Southern California)
Discussants: Charles Crabtree (Dartmouth College); Yoshikuni Ono (Waseda University)
Chair: Phillip Y. Lipscy (University of Toronto)

Erik Wang (New York University), "Too Much But Never Enough: Administrative Capacity and Backlashes to State-building in Medieval Japan"
2025-11-13 20:00 - 21:00
U.S. ET: November 13 (Thursday), 8 – 9 PM
JST: November 14 (Friday), 10 – 11 AM
Zoom Registration: Link
Paper: Link
Author(s): Erik H. Wang (New York University) and Weiwen Yin (University of Macau)
Abstract:
How does state-building fail? Existing scholarship emphasizes both territorial reach and administrative capacity as keys to state-building, but these dimensions do not always progress in tandem. We argue that when territorial penetration outpaces administrative capacity, it will generate governance demands that the state is ill-equipped to manage, ultimately fueling unrest. We test this argument in Japan under the Kamakura Shogunate (1185 – 1333). In preparation for the Mongol invasions, the Shogunate expanded direct rule into previously autonomous regions, despite its own underdeveloped bureaucratic infrastructure. Our difference-in-differences analyses show that this effort triggered rebellions against the Shogunate, identifying increased governance burdens as the key mechanism. These centrifugal forces culminated in long-term state decay, evidenced by the proliferation of castles after the Shogunate’s collapse particularly in those regions. Our findings highlight the conundrum of premature state-building: without sufficient administrative capacity, efforts to strengthen central authority can paradoxically weaken the state’s long-term viability.
Presenter: Erik H. Wang (New York University)
Discussants: Emily Sellars (Yale University); Junichi Yamasaki (Kyoto University)
Chair: Christina Davis (Harvard University)
